659 lines
24 KiB
Python
659 lines
24 KiB
Python
"""Multi-agent decision game implementation."""
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from __future__ import annotations
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from dataclasses import dataclass, field
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from math import log
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from typing import Dict, Iterable, List, Mapping, Optional, Tuple
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from .base import Agent, AgentAction, AgentContext, UtilityMatrix
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from .departments import DepartmentContext, DepartmentDecision, DepartmentManager
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from .registry import weight_map
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from .beliefs import BeliefRevisionResult, revise_beliefs
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from .risk import RiskAgent, RiskRecommendation
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from .protocols import (
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DialogueMessage,
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DialogueRole,
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GameStructure,
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MessageType,
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ProtocolHost,
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RoundSummary,
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)
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ACTIONS: Tuple[AgentAction, ...] = (
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AgentAction.SELL,
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AgentAction.HOLD,
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AgentAction.BUY_S,
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AgentAction.BUY_M,
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AgentAction.BUY_L,
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)
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def _clamp(value: float) -> float:
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return max(0.0, min(1.0, value))
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@dataclass
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class BeliefUpdate:
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belief: Dict[str, object]
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rationale: Optional[str] = None
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@dataclass
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class RiskAssessment:
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status: str
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reason: str
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recommended_action: Optional[AgentAction] = None
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notes: Dict[str, object] = field(default_factory=dict)
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def to_dict(self) -> Dict[str, object]:
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payload: Dict[str, object] = {
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"status": self.status,
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"reason": self.reason,
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"notes": dict(self.notes),
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}
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if self.recommended_action is not None:
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payload["recommended_action"] = self.recommended_action.value
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return payload
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@dataclass
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class Decision:
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action: AgentAction
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confidence: float
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target_weight: float
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feasible_actions: List[AgentAction]
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utilities: UtilityMatrix
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department_decisions: Dict[str, DepartmentDecision] = field(default_factory=dict)
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department_votes: Dict[str, float] = field(default_factory=dict)
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requires_review: bool = False
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rounds: List[RoundSummary] = field(default_factory=list)
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risk_assessment: Optional[RiskAssessment] = None
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belief_updates: Dict[str, BeliefUpdate] = field(default_factory=dict)
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belief_revision: Optional[BeliefRevisionResult] = None
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def compute_utilities(agents: Iterable[Agent], context: AgentContext) -> UtilityMatrix:
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utilities: UtilityMatrix = {}
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for action in ACTIONS:
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utilities[action] = {}
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for agent in agents:
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score = _clamp(agent.score(context, action))
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utilities[action][agent.name] = score
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return utilities
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def feasible_actions(agents: Iterable[Agent], context: AgentContext) -> List[AgentAction]:
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feas: List[AgentAction] = []
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for action in ACTIONS:
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if all(agent.feasible(context, action) for agent in agents):
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feas.append(action)
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return feas
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def nash_bargain(utilities: UtilityMatrix, weights: Mapping[str, float], disagreement: Mapping[str, float]) -> Tuple[AgentAction, float]:
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best_action = AgentAction.HOLD
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best_score = float("-inf")
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for action, agent_scores in utilities.items():
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if action not in utilities:
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continue
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log_product = 0.0
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valid = True
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for agent_name, score in agent_scores.items():
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w = weights.get(agent_name, 0.0)
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if w == 0:
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continue
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gap = score - disagreement.get(agent_name, 0.0)
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if gap <= 0:
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valid = False
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break
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log_product += w * log(gap)
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if not valid:
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continue
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if log_product > best_score:
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best_score = log_product
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best_action = action
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if best_score == float("-inf"):
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return AgentAction.HOLD, 0.0
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confidence = _aggregate_confidence(utilities[best_action], weights)
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return best_action, confidence
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def vote(utilities: UtilityMatrix, weights: Mapping[str, float]) -> Tuple[AgentAction, float]:
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scores: Dict[AgentAction, float] = {}
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for action, agent_scores in utilities.items():
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scores[action] = sum(weights.get(agent, 0.0) * score for agent, score in agent_scores.items())
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best_action = max(scores, key=scores.get)
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confidence = _aggregate_confidence(utilities[best_action], weights)
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return best_action, confidence
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def _aggregate_confidence(agent_scores: Mapping[str, float], weights: Mapping[str, float]) -> float:
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total = sum(weights.values())
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if total <= 0:
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return 0.0
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weighted = sum(weights.get(agent, 0.0) * score for agent, score in agent_scores.items())
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return weighted / total
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def target_weight_for_action(action: AgentAction) -> float:
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mapping = {
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AgentAction.SELL: -1.0,
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AgentAction.HOLD: 0.0,
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AgentAction.BUY_S: 0.01,
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AgentAction.BUY_M: 0.02,
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AgentAction.BUY_L: 0.03,
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}
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return mapping[action]
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def decide(
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context: AgentContext,
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agents: Iterable[Agent],
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weights: Mapping[str, float],
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method: str = "nash",
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department_manager: Optional[DepartmentManager] = None,
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department_context: Optional[DepartmentContext] = None,
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) -> Decision:
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agent_list = list(agents)
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utilities = compute_utilities(agent_list, context)
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feas_actions = feasible_actions(agent_list, context)
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if not feas_actions:
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return Decision(
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action=AgentAction.HOLD,
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confidence=0.0,
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target_weight=0.0,
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feasible_actions=[],
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utilities=utilities,
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)
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raw_weights = dict(weights)
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department_decisions: Dict[str, DepartmentDecision] = {}
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department_votes: Dict[str, float] = {}
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host = ProtocolHost()
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host_trace = host.bootstrap_trace(
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session_id=f"{context.ts_code}:{context.trade_date}",
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ts_code=context.ts_code,
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trade_date=context.trade_date,
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)
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briefing_round = host.start_round(
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host_trace,
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agenda="situation_briefing",
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structure=GameStructure.SIGNALING,
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)
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host.handle_message(briefing_round, _host_briefing_message(context))
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host.finalize_round(briefing_round)
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department_round: Optional[RoundSummary] = None
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risk_round: Optional[RoundSummary] = None
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execution_round: Optional[RoundSummary] = None
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belief_updates: Dict[str, BeliefUpdate] = {}
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if department_manager:
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dept_context = department_context
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if dept_context is None:
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dept_context = DepartmentContext(
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ts_code=context.ts_code,
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trade_date=context.trade_date,
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features=dict(context.features),
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market_snapshot=dict(getattr(context, "market_snapshot", {}) or {}),
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raw=dict(getattr(context, "raw", {}) or {}),
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)
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department_decisions = department_manager.evaluate(dept_context)
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if department_decisions:
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department_round = host.start_round(
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host_trace,
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agenda="department_consensus",
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structure=GameStructure.REPEATED,
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)
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for code, decision in department_decisions.items():
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agent_key = f"dept_{code}"
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dept_agent = department_manager.agents.get(code)
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weight = dept_agent.settings.weight if dept_agent else 1.0
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raw_weights[agent_key] = weight
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scores = _department_scores(decision)
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for action in ACTIONS:
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utilities.setdefault(action, {})[agent_key] = scores[action]
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bucket = _department_vote_bucket(decision.action)
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if bucket:
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department_votes[bucket] = department_votes.get(bucket, 0.0) + weight * decision.confidence
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if department_round:
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message = _department_message(code, decision)
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host.handle_message(department_round, message)
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belief_updates[code] = BeliefUpdate(
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belief={
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"action": decision.action.value,
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"confidence": decision.confidence,
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"signals": decision.signals,
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},
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rationale=decision.summary,
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)
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filtered_utilities = {action: utilities[action] for action in feas_actions}
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hold_scores = utilities.get(AgentAction.HOLD, {})
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norm_weights = weight_map(raw_weights)
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prediction_round = host.start_round(
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host_trace,
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agenda="prediction_alignment",
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structure=GameStructure.REPEATED,
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)
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prediction_message, prediction_summary = _prediction_summary_message(filtered_utilities, norm_weights)
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host.handle_message(prediction_round, prediction_message)
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host.finalize_round(prediction_round)
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if prediction_summary:
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belief_updates["prediction_summary"] = BeliefUpdate(
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belief=prediction_summary,
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rationale="Aggregated utilities shared during alignment round.",
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)
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if method == "vote":
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action, confidence = vote(filtered_utilities, norm_weights)
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else:
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action, confidence = nash_bargain(filtered_utilities, norm_weights, hold_scores)
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if action not in feas_actions:
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action, confidence = vote(filtered_utilities, norm_weights)
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weight = target_weight_for_action(action)
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conflict_flag = _department_conflict_flag(department_votes)
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risk_agent = _find_risk_agent(agent_list)
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risk_assessment = _evaluate_risk(
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context,
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action,
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department_votes,
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conflict_flag,
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risk_agent,
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)
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requires_review = risk_assessment.status != "ok"
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if department_round:
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department_round.notes.setdefault("department_votes", dict(department_votes))
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department_round.outcome = action.value
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host.finalize_round(department_round)
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if requires_review:
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risk_round = host.ensure_round(
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host_trace,
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agenda="risk_review",
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structure=GameStructure.CUSTOM,
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)
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review_message = DialogueMessage(
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sender="risk_guard",
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role=DialogueRole.RISK,
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message_type=MessageType.COUNTER,
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content=_risk_review_message(risk_assessment.reason),
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confidence=1.0,
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references=list(department_votes.keys()),
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annotations={
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"department_votes": dict(department_votes),
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"risk_reason": risk_assessment.reason,
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"recommended_action": (
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risk_assessment.recommended_action.value
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if risk_assessment.recommended_action
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else None
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),
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"notes": dict(risk_assessment.notes),
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},
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)
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host.handle_message(risk_round, review_message)
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risk_round.notes.setdefault("status", risk_assessment.status)
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risk_round.notes.setdefault("reason", risk_assessment.reason)
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if risk_assessment.recommended_action:
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risk_round.notes.setdefault(
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"recommended_action",
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risk_assessment.recommended_action.value,
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)
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risk_round.outcome = "REVIEW"
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host.finalize_round(risk_round)
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belief_updates["risk_guard"] = BeliefUpdate(
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belief={
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"status": risk_assessment.status,
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"reason": risk_assessment.reason,
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"recommended_action": (
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risk_assessment.recommended_action.value
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if risk_assessment.recommended_action
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else None
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),
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},
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)
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execution_round = host.ensure_round(
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host_trace,
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agenda="execution_summary",
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structure=GameStructure.REPEATED,
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)
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exec_action = action
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exec_weight = weight
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exec_status = "normal"
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if requires_review and risk_assessment.recommended_action:
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exec_action = risk_assessment.recommended_action
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exec_status = "risk_adjusted"
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exec_weight = target_weight_for_action(exec_action)
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execution_message = DialogueMessage(
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sender="execution_engine",
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role=DialogueRole.EXECUTION,
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message_type=MessageType.DIRECTIVE,
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content=f"执行操作 {exec_action.value}",
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confidence=1.0,
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annotations={
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"target_weight": exec_weight,
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"requires_review": requires_review,
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"execution_status": exec_status,
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},
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)
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host.handle_message(execution_round, execution_message)
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execution_round.outcome = exec_action.value
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execution_round.notes.setdefault("execution_status", exec_status)
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if exec_action is not action:
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execution_round.notes.setdefault("original_action", action.value)
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belief_updates["execution"] = BeliefUpdate(
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belief={
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"execution_status": exec_status,
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"action": exec_action.value,
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"target_weight": exec_weight,
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},
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)
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host.finalize_round(execution_round)
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host.close(host_trace)
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rounds = host_trace.rounds if host_trace.rounds else _build_round_summaries(
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department_decisions,
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action,
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department_votes,
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)
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belief_revision = revise_beliefs(belief_updates, exec_action)
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if belief_revision.conflicts:
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risk_round = host.ensure_round(
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host_trace,
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agenda="conflict_resolution",
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structure=GameStructure.CUSTOM,
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)
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conflict_message = DialogueMessage(
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sender="protocol_host",
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role=DialogueRole.HOST,
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message_type=MessageType.COUNTER,
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content="检测到关键冲突，需要后续回合复核。",
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annotations={"conflicts": belief_revision.conflicts},
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)
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host.handle_message(risk_round, conflict_message)
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risk_round.notes.setdefault("conflicts", belief_revision.conflicts)
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host.finalize_round(risk_round)
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execution_round.notes.setdefault("consensus_action", belief_revision.consensus_action.value)
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execution_round.notes.setdefault("consensus_confidence", belief_revision.consensus_confidence)
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if belief_revision.conflicts:
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execution_round.notes.setdefault("conflicts", belief_revision.conflicts)
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if belief_revision.notes:
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execution_round.notes.setdefault("belief_notes", belief_revision.notes)
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return Decision(
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action=action,
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confidence=confidence,
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target_weight=weight,
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feasible_actions=feas_actions,
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utilities=utilities,
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department_decisions=department_decisions,
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department_votes=department_votes,
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requires_review=requires_review,
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rounds=rounds,
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risk_assessment=risk_assessment,
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belief_updates=belief_updates,
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belief_revision=belief_revision,
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)
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def _department_scores(decision: DepartmentDecision) -> Dict[AgentAction, float]:
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conf = _clamp(decision.confidence)
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scores: Dict[AgentAction, float] = {action: 0.2 for action in ACTIONS}
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if decision.action is AgentAction.SELL:
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scores[AgentAction.SELL] = 0.7 + 0.3 * conf
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scores[AgentAction.HOLD] = 0.4 * (1 - conf)
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scores[AgentAction.BUY_S] = 0.2 * (1 - conf)
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scores[AgentAction.BUY_M] = 0.15 * (1 - conf)
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scores[AgentAction.BUY_L] = 0.1 * (1 - conf)
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elif decision.action in {AgentAction.BUY_S, AgentAction.BUY_M, AgentAction.BUY_L}:
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for action in (AgentAction.BUY_S, AgentAction.BUY_M, AgentAction.BUY_L):
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if action is decision.action:
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scores[action] = 0.6 + 0.4 * conf
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else:
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scores[action] = 0.3 + 0.3 * conf
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scores[AgentAction.HOLD] = 0.3 * (1 - conf) + 0.25
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scores[AgentAction.SELL] = 0.15 * (1 - conf)
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else: # HOLD 或未知
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scores[AgentAction.HOLD] = 0.6 + 0.4 * conf
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scores[AgentAction.SELL] = 0.3 * (1 - conf)
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scores[AgentAction.BUY_S] = 0.3 * (1 - conf)
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scores[AgentAction.BUY_M] = 0.3 * (1 - conf)
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scores[AgentAction.BUY_L] = 0.3 * (1 - conf)
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return {action: _clamp(score) for action, score in scores.items()}
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def _department_vote_bucket(action: AgentAction) -> str:
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if action is AgentAction.SELL:
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return "sell"
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if action in {AgentAction.BUY_S, AgentAction.BUY_M, AgentAction.BUY_L}:
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return "buy"
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if action is AgentAction.HOLD:
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return "hold"
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return ""
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def _department_conflict_flag(votes: Mapping[str, float]) -> bool:
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if not votes:
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return False
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total = sum(votes.values())
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if total <= 0:
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return True
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top = max(votes.values())
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if top < total * 0.45:
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return True
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if len(votes) > 1:
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sorted_votes = sorted(votes.values(), reverse=True)
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if len(sorted_votes) >= 2 and (sorted_votes[0] - sorted_votes[1]) < total * 0.1:
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return True
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return False
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def _host_briefing_message(context: AgentContext) -> DialogueMessage:
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features = getattr(context, "features", {}) or {}
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close = features.get("close") or features.get("daily.close")
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pct_chg = features.get("pct_chg") or features.get("daily.pct_chg")
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snapshot = getattr(context, "market_snapshot", {}) or {}
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index_brief = snapshot.get("index_change")
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lines = [
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f"标的 {context.ts_code}",
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f"交易日 {context.trade_date}",
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]
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if close is not None:
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lines.append(f"最新收盘价：{close}")
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if pct_chg is not None:
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lines.append(f"涨跌幅：{pct_chg}")
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if index_brief:
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lines.append(f"市场概览：{index_brief}")
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content = "；".join(str(line) for line in lines)
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return DialogueMessage(
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sender="protocol_host",
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role=DialogueRole.HOST,
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message_type=MessageType.META,
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content=content,
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)
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def _prediction_summary_message(
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utilities: Mapping[AgentAction, Mapping[str, float]],
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weights: Mapping[str, float],
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) -> Tuple[DialogueMessage, Dict[str, object]]:
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if not utilities:
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message = DialogueMessage(
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sender="protocol_host",
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role=DialogueRole.PREDICTION,
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message_type=MessageType.META,
|
||
content="暂无可用的部门或代理评分，默认进入 HOLD 讨论。",
|
||
)
|
||
return message, {}
|
||
aggregates: Dict[AgentAction, float] = {}
|
||
for action, agent_scores in utilities.items():
|
||
aggregates[action] = sum(weights.get(agent, 0.0) * score for agent, score in agent_scores.items())
|
||
ranked = sorted(aggregates.items(), key=lambda item: item[1], reverse=True)
|
||
summary_lines = []
|
||
for action, score in ranked[:3]:
|
||
summary_lines.append(f"{action.value}: {score:.3f}")
|
||
content = "预测合意度：" + " ｜ ".join(summary_lines)
|
||
total_score = sum(max(score, 0.0) for _, score in ranked)
|
||
confidence = 0.0
|
||
if total_score > 0 and ranked:
|
||
confidence = max(ranked[0][1], 0.0) / total_score
|
||
annotations = {
|
||
"aggregates": {action.value: score for action, score in aggregates.items()},
|
||
}
|
||
message = DialogueMessage(
|
||
sender="protocol_host",
|
||
role=DialogueRole.PREDICTION,
|
||
message_type=MessageType.META,
|
||
content=content,
|
||
confidence=confidence,
|
||
annotations=annotations,
|
||
)
|
||
summary = {
|
||
"aggregates": {action.value: aggregates[action] for action in ACTIONS if action in aggregates},
|
||
"confidence": confidence,
|
||
}
|
||
return message, summary
|
||
|
||
|
||
def _department_message(code: str, decision: DepartmentDecision) -> DialogueMessage:
|
||
content = decision.summary or decision.raw_response or decision.action.value
|
||
references = decision.signals or []
|
||
annotations: Dict[str, object] = {
|
||
"risks": decision.risks,
|
||
"supplements": decision.supplements,
|
||
}
|
||
if decision.dialogue:
|
||
annotations["dialogue"] = decision.dialogue
|
||
if decision.telemetry:
|
||
annotations["telemetry"] = decision.telemetry
|
||
return DialogueMessage(
|
||
sender=code,
|
||
role=DialogueRole.PREDICTION,
|
||
message_type=MessageType.DECISION,
|
||
content=content,
|
||
confidence=decision.confidence,
|
||
references=references,
|
||
annotations=annotations,
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
|
||
def _evaluate_risk(
|
||
context: AgentContext,
|
||
action: AgentAction,
|
||
department_votes: Mapping[str, float],
|
||
conflict_flag: bool,
|
||
risk_agent: Optional[RiskAgent],
|
||
) -> RiskAssessment:
|
||
external_alerts = []
|
||
if getattr(context, "raw", None):
|
||
alerts = context.raw.get("risk_alerts", [])
|
||
if alerts:
|
||
external_alerts = list(alerts)
|
||
|
||
if risk_agent:
|
||
recommendation = risk_agent.assess(context, action, conflict_flag)
|
||
notes = dict(recommendation.notes)
|
||
notes.setdefault("department_votes", dict(department_votes))
|
||
if external_alerts:
|
||
notes.setdefault("external_alerts", external_alerts)
|
||
if recommendation.status == "ok":
|
||
recommendation = RiskRecommendation(
|
||
status="pending_review",
|
||
reason="external_alert",
|
||
recommended_action=recommendation.recommended_action or AgentAction.HOLD,
|
||
notes=notes,
|
||
)
|
||
else:
|
||
recommendation.notes = notes
|
||
return RiskAssessment(
|
||
status=recommendation.status,
|
||
reason=recommendation.reason,
|
||
recommended_action=recommendation.recommended_action,
|
||
notes=recommendation.notes,
|
||
)
|
||
|
||
notes: Dict[str, object] = {
|
||
"conflict": conflict_flag,
|
||
"department_votes": dict(department_votes),
|
||
}
|
||
if external_alerts:
|
||
notes["external_alerts"] = external_alerts
|
||
return RiskAssessment(
|
||
status="pending_review",
|
||
reason="external_alert",
|
||
recommended_action=AgentAction.HOLD,
|
||
notes=notes,
|
||
)
|
||
if conflict_flag:
|
||
return RiskAssessment(
|
||
status="pending_review",
|
||
reason="conflict_threshold",
|
||
notes=notes,
|
||
)
|
||
return RiskAssessment(status="ok", reason="clear", notes=notes)
|
||
|
||
|
||
def _find_risk_agent(agents: Iterable[Agent]) -> Optional[RiskAgent]:
|
||
for agent in agents:
|
||
if isinstance(agent, RiskAgent):
|
||
return agent
|
||
return None
|
||
|
||
|
||
def _risk_review_message(reason: str) -> str:
|
||
mapping = {
|
||
"conflict_threshold": "部门意见分歧，触发风险复核",
|
||
"suspended": "标的停牌，需冻结执行",
|
||
"limit_up": "标的涨停，执行需调整",
|
||
"position_limit": "仓位限制已触发，需调整目标",
|
||
"risk_penalty_extreme": "风险评分极高，建议暂停加仓",
|
||
"risk_penalty_high": "风险评分偏高，建议复核",
|
||
"external_alert": "外部风险告警触发复核",
|
||
}
|
||
return mapping.get(reason, "触发风险复核，需人工确认")
|
||
|
||
|
||
def _build_round_summaries(
|
||
department_decisions: Mapping[str, DepartmentDecision],
|
||
final_action: AgentAction,
|
||
department_votes: Mapping[str, float],
|
||
) -> List[RoundSummary]:
|
||
if not department_decisions:
|
||
return []
|
||
messages: List[DialogueMessage] = []
|
||
for code, decision in department_decisions.items():
|
||
content = decision.summary or decision.raw_response or decision.action.value
|
||
references = decision.signals or []
|
||
annotations: Dict[str, object] = {
|
||
"risks": decision.risks,
|
||
"supplements": decision.supplements,
|
||
}
|
||
if decision.dialogue:
|
||
annotations["dialogue"] = decision.dialogue
|
||
if decision.telemetry:
|
||
annotations["telemetry"] = decision.telemetry
|
||
message = DialogueMessage(
|
||
sender=code,
|
||
role=DialogueRole.PREDICTION,
|
||
message_type=MessageType.DECISION,
|
||
content=content,
|
||
confidence=decision.confidence,
|
||
references=references,
|
||
annotations=annotations,
|
||
)
|
||
messages.append(message)
|
||
notes: Dict[str, object] = {
|
||
"department_votes": dict(department_votes),
|
||
}
|
||
summary = RoundSummary(
|
||
index=0,
|
||
agenda="department_consensus",
|
||
structure=GameStructure.REPEATED,
|
||
resolved=True,
|
||
outcome=final_action.value,
|
||
messages=messages,
|
||
notes=notes,
|
||
)
|
||
return [summary]
|